Breakout 19: SHARK TANK – Change is coming: who will survive?

Breakout 19: SHARK TANK – Change is Coming: Who Will Survive?

Wednesday, July 12, 1:30 PM – 5:30 PM
Golden Gate 4

Organizers:

  • Richard Mudge, Compass Transportation and Technology
  • Alain Kornhauser, Princeton University
  • Scott Smith, U.S. DOT Volpe Center
  • David Pickerall, Smart and Connected Transportation
  • Amitai Bin-Nun, Security America’s Future Energy
  • Reinhard Pfliegl, A3PS
  • Alan Chachih, U.S. DOT Volpe Center

Session Summary

Automated vehicles provide a classic example of disruptive innovation. Change will be non-linear in nature (difficult to predict impacts with precision) and likely to generate new markets and new ways to provide traditional transportation services. Implications cover economic and social changes, well beyond those of traditional transportation investments.

Rather than talk in generalities, this workshop will focus on specific changes that have been advocated or predicted. A panel (the sharks) will provide a critical review of each potential change and ask about feasibility, unanswered technical or market questions, planning and policy implications, and possible future research.

Sharks – commentators

  • Alain Kornhauser, Princeton Univeristy
  • Randy Iwasaki, Contra Costa County Transportation Authority
  • Jim Scheinman, Maven Ventures
  • Iain Forbes, Head of the Centre for Connected and Autonomous Vehicles;UK Ministry of Transportation
  • Chris Gerdes, Center for Automotive Research at Stanford
  • Reinhard Pfliegl, A3PS
  • Brad Templeton, Singularity University

1:30 PM – 3:15 PM

Moderator – Alain Kornhauser, Princeton University

1:40 PM – 2:25 PM   The End of Traffic Congestion

Reduced crashes and shorter headways (platoons) should increase the effective capacity of expressways and other roads.  US DOT’s report Beyond Traffic mentioned a possible five-fold increase in road capacity. Even less dramatic changes would have major implications for economics (improved access to labor/jobs and markers); finance (reduced need for public spending); and land use (encourage increased VMT). This session focus on economic, social, and environmental implications rather than traffic simulation models.

Richard Mudge, Compass Transportation and Technology Inc.

2:25 PM – 3:15 PM   Freight Revolution 
Truck pelotons have been tested and appear on the verge of operation.  This session will not focus on energy savings such as from truck trains where each truck has a driver, but rather on driverless trucks.  These offer the opportunity to travel long distances without a stop – coast to coast in two days?   We may touch on high-speed intercity passenger service as well.    

Steve Boyd, Peloton Technologies

3:15 PM – 3:45 PM Break

3:45 PM – 5:15 PM Second Two Topics

Moderator: Richard Mudge, Compass Transportation and Technology Inc.

3:45 PM – 4:30 PM   Will State and Local Transport Agencies Fade Away? 
Does the Growth of Autonomous Vehicles Leave State DOTs and MPOs with Less To Do?    Connected and automated vehicles require little if any financial support from public agencies.  That is, deployment will happen largely based on market forces.

Baruch Feigenbaum, Reason Foundation

 4:30 PM – 5:15PM  No One Owns Cars Any More

A growing number of people support the idea that the combination of autonomous vehicles, shared mobility, and reduced interest in driving will eliminate auto ownership – at least in urban areas.  This is linked with the Mobility As A Service concept.  A recent MIT study said that 3,000 vehicles was enough to handle all the traffic in Manhattan.

Susan Shaheen, Director of Innovative Mobility Research, University of California at Berkeley

5:15 PM – 5:30 PM Summary and Closing Remarks 

Breakout 19 / 25