Breakout #9

Breakout Session #9

Methods for Assessing Market Acceptance, Adoption, and Usage of AVs

Tuesday, July 19

Room- Union Square 22

Organizers

  • Johanna Zmud, Texas A&M Transportation Institute
  • Arum Kuppam, Cambridge Systematics
  • Aruna Sivakumar, Imperial College London
  • Barbara Lenz, German Aerospace Center, DLR
  • Guy Rousseau, Atlanta Regional Commission
  • Hyeon-Shic Shin, Morgan State University
  • Jana Janarthanan, Washington State DOT
  • Junyi Zhang, Hiroshima University
  • Kouros Mohammadian, University of Illinois at Chicago
  • Kristin Kolodge, JD Power and Associates
  • Maren Outwater, Resource Systems Group
  • Naohisa Hashimoto, National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology
  • Paul Leiby, Oak Ridge National Lab
  • Scott Le Vine, lmperial College London
  • Siva Srinivasan, University of Florida

Overview

The objective of the session is to determine the kinds of information we need to collect in order to understand vehicle ownership and usage uncertainties as the AV market develops, and to outline suggested research approaches for capturing reliable information.

This is a new workshop topic. It begins an interdisciplinary dialogue on how best to study the ways in which the market for AVs will develop. The advent of AVs could be truly transformative, but future acceptance and use are highly uncertain. Car ownership trends could change. Residential spatial patterns could change. The number of vehicle miles traveled (VMT) could increase or decrease, depending on how, when, and why people use AVs. Because AVs are not yet present in the traffic streams, with the exception of a few test vehicles, it is difficult to reliably predict future consumer demand. Any purported outcomes are just theoretical at this point. Basic questions need answers: How likely are people to use AVs? What are the factors that influence acceptance and intent to use? What is the appeal of AVs for people? In what ways might people change their current travel behavior because of access to AVs? Methods to collect and capture data need to ensure that the data are reliable. The choice of methods and the way in which they are implemented are largely determined by the research questions, but are also influenced by practical considerations such as ethics, budget and time. In this workshop, transportation planners, researchers and policy analysts will exchange their research experiences to date and explore best practice for the future.

Agenda

TIME ITEM SPEAKER
1:30 – 1:35 PM Welcome and Objectives Johanna Zmud (Texas A&M Transportation Institute)
1:35 – 2:00 PM
Facilitator:
Johanna Zmud
The Road to Autonomous Vehicles

Audience Discussion
Xavier Mosquet, Boston Consulting Group
2:00-3:00 PM
Facilitator: Barbara Lenz, German Aerospace Center (DLR)
Current Research Approaches:
Presentation Title: Exploring the User Expectations on Autonomous Driving
Presentation Title: Forecasting Consumer Adoption of Autonomous Vehicles and the Impact on Total Vehicle Sales

Moderated Open Mic Jam: Anyone in audience can share ideas about an innovative research approach or recent research coducted
Stefan Trommer, German Aerospace Center, DLR (qualitative approach)
Dan Weinstein, RSG (quantitative approach)
3:00 - 3:30 PM Break
3:30-4:45 PM Priority Research Questions:

Presentation of Survey Results on Research Questions

Breakout Groups
  1. Vehicle Usage: Single Occupancy
  2. Vehicle Usage: High Occupancy
  3. Vehicle Ownership: Private
  4. Vehicle Ownership: Leasing/Subscription Service

For priority questions assigned to group:

Which can be answered immediately and which can only be addressed in medium to long term?

Which are already being effectively addressed and which are still highly uncertain?

How can we obtain necessary information for priority questions? Pros/ cons of different approaches

Maren Outwater, RSG

Breakout Group Facilitators:
Kristin Kolodge, JD Power and Associates
Paul Leiby, ORNL
Arun Kuppam, Cambridge Systematics
Scott Levine, Imperial College, SUNY-New Paltz
4:45 – 5:30 PM Report Back and Determining Next Steps Rapporteurs
Johanna Zmud (TTI)

Breakout 9 / 22